Data to reveal extent of lockdown damage | Liverpool City Champion
Next month’s economic growth figures for the September quarter are considered old history by some economists, as there are already signs of a smart recovery in the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns from NSW and Victoria.
Even so, the national accounts – which provide a comprehensive guide to the state of the nation – will show the extent of the damage inflicted by the Delta variant and whether growth forecasts for the year can still be made.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy told senators last month he expects the economy to contract by about 3% in the September quarter due to the containment of half the population .
If correct, it would represent the second strongest growth contraction in national accounts history – the record being 7% in the June quarter of last year and in the country’s first recession in close proximity. 30 years old.
Some economists believe September’s contraction could be closer to four percent.
Economists will refine their forecasts as quarterly figures are released over the next week and ahead of the national accounts release on December 1.
What is known so far is that retail spending fell 4.4% in the September quarter, the largest quarterly decline on record.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish construction work completed during the quarter on Wednesday.
Economists’ forecasts point to a 3% drop for the September quarter, although forecasts vary from a 6% drop to a modest 0.5% increase.
On Thursday, ABS will release private sector capital spending for the quarter. The report also contains the future investment intentions of companies.
The forecast here focuses on a 2.5% drop, with expectations ranging from a 5% drop to a 1% increase.
“Considering the reopening, everything will be a bit dated,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist of AMP Capital.
âThe focus should really be on the investment plans of companies which are likely to show a further increase, as companies were surveyed at the time of the reopening and given that business confidence has held up fairly well during the closures. “
Quarterly data on corporate profits, business inventories, international trade and government spending will be released early next week.
Separately, the ABS will release more up-to-date weekly paid employment figures for the fortnight ending October 30, which will capture the lifting of restrictions in NSW, Victoria and ACT.
The week ends Friday with retail spending for October, which is expected to post a solid 2% increase.
Meanwhile, Australian stocks are expected to experience a weak start to the week as global equity markets remain gripped by inflationary concerns and the potential impact on economies and corporate earnings.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 lost 6.58 points to 4,697.96 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 268.97 points to 35,601.98. However, the Nasdaq added 63.73 points to 16,057.44, for its sixth consecutive gain.
“A new wave of COVID cases (in Europe) could allay searing global concerns about inflation and interest rates, which could end up being somewhat favorable for stock markets, especially growth-oriented sectors such as technology, âBetaShares chief economist David Bassanese told.
Australian stock futures fell 45 points to 7351 due to the general downtrend on Wall Street.
Australia’s benchmark S & P / ASX200 closed up 17.3 points, or 0.23%, at 7,396.5 points on Friday.
Associated Australian Press